The G20 Summit taking place in Osaka, Japan from yesterday is one of the most important such meetings of world leaders in recent decades. The nations are faced with the huge challenge of seeking to resolve the current US-China Trade War affecting business interests and the economies of countries throughout the world.
The G20 Summit in Washington in 2008 was in the midst of the major economic crash in the United States, which in turn was having huge negative impacts on the world economy. The current Osaka Summit is focused on an international economic crisis, largely due to the moves by US President Donald Trump in trade relations with the world’s second largest economy, China, and the responses of China to these moves.
The international community is closely watching the meetings and for any understandings that may be reached between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. They last met at the previous G20 Summit at Buenos Aires, seven months ago, when they came to an agreement on a 90-day truce in the trade war between US and China. The hopes are that such an understanding could be reached again, bringing some relief to the world economy, and preventing the rise of a more determined trade war between the world’s two largest economies. There are reports of the possibility of such an agreement, even for temporary relief, in view of the prevailing economic and political situations in both the US and China.
In the months leading up to the current Osaka Summit, the escalation of the trade war between the US and China, has led to rising animosity between the two powerful countries, that have a negative impact on world economics and international relations. The increased restrictions by the US on the Chinese telecom giant, Huawei, and four other Chinese tech firms, has led to China also responding with its own trade bans on US produce, and increasing scrutiny on American firms operating in China.
The International Monetary Fund and other institutions have warned that escalating US-China trade tensions are among the biggest threats to the world economy.
As the Osaka Summit hopes for relaxation of the trade war, President Trump continues with threats to impose tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods imported by the US, leading to such tariffs on everything that China sells to the US, if there is no trade deal between the two countries.
This policy is supported by the voters for President Trump, following his pledge to come to terms with China in his election campaign in 2016, when he won. Many US business interest also support Trump’s hard line on China. But the overall US Trade has much concern about this trade war, leading to high prices to the consumer on a wide range of domestic and necessary products. There are warnings this would have a negative impact on the next Presidential Election of Donald Trump, due in 2020, where the campaign has also commenced.
China is also faced with increasing worries with its own economy slowing and a continuing trade war with US having negative political impacts within the country, and threats to the Chinese programmes of expanding international trade. With both leaders under pressure to show they are not giving in to the rival power, the Osaka Summit has laid down the opportunity at least for a limited understanding, bringing relief to both countries and peoples, and the overall world economy.
US – Iran confrontation
Following the downing of a US spy Drone engaged in information operations in what has been claimed as Iranian territory, rejected by the US, the tensions between the two countries have worsened, although there was some relief, when President Trump stopped a planned counter air attack on Iranian military targets, at the last moment. Trump said he thought the possibility of having 150 Iranian victims, was not in keeping with a response to an unmanned attack.
The confrontation has now moved to a major verbal exchange, with President Trump responding to Iranian officials calling the White House “mentally retarded”, stating this statement “ignorant and insulting” before warning he is prepared to use “great and overwhelming force” against their country.
There is much fear that the current lukewarm conflict in words, could lead to something much stronger, putting the entire Middle East into a situation of confrontation and bloodshed. The number of US troops in the ME has been increased and regional fears are that any accidental moves by either party could lead to a major confrontation.
Observers and analysts of current developments in the Middle East, think that America is getting “dragged into a dangerous military confrontation” with Iran, by an alliance of malign states in the Middle East and hawks in the Trump administration. Many see the leaders of Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and the US President’s National Security Advisor John Bolton, directly engaged in this exercise to orchestrate a major conflict in the Middle East. Many see the deployment of an US aircraft carrier strike group to the Gulf, and a key US officer in Defence presenting a military contingency plan to the region, as a warning of emerging trends.
In the midst of the US – Iran conflict, there is now the “Peace Plan” for the Middle East, presented by Jared Kushner, President Trumps’ Advisor and son-in-law, on relations between Israel and Palestinians, which has already been rejected by Palestinians. There are increased concerns in the Middle East over the Kushner “Peace Plan” and the cut down of aid to Palestinian people and services by the US, as contributing to a rising situation of unease and confrontation in the region.
The main US target is Iran, especially with its capability to develop nuclear weapons, and the decision by President Trump to abandon the Agreement with Europe, Russia, China, UK and the US on the curtailing of nuclear resources activity by Iran, which has also been adopted by the UN Security Council.
The Trump administration moving away from this accord has also placed Europe in a difficult situation on supporting Iran, as it threatens to move away from the original agreement, posing a new threat of nuclear resource confrontation in the Middle East. Europe is also faced by the huge sanctions imposed by the US on any countries, doing most business and trade with Iran, which has pushed Iran into a situation of critical economic hardships.
The Middle East remains a centre of future armed confrontation with Iran and its allies being challenged both economically and militarily by the US and its regional allies.
UK - Prime Minister search
Theresa May is already history in British politics. The contest to choose her successor who would lead the Conservative Party and then become Prime Minister has now come down to two candidates – Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt, both having held of Foreign Secretary.
In the polls among the members of the House of Commons, Boris Johnson had a clear lead, and is now considered the favourite for votes from 1,600 Conservative Party members who will choose the leader.
Just now it is the personalities of the two competitors that are mainly in the news, while there is insufficient coverage of their policies on Brexit – the leaving from the European Union, that is the crux of the issue, and which led to the fall of Theresa May. Many in the UK see Brexit as the most significant challenge faced by the UK since World War II.
Many analysts see this as a ‘selection’ and not an ‘election’, in the context of UK democracy, with 160,000 fee paying Conservative Party members choosing the next party leader and Prime Minister of 66 million people.
Both candidates are untested in national leadership capabilities, although Boris Johnson has the record of being twice elected as the Conservative Mayor of London, with considerable issues about his performance. The major question today is whether either candidate can truly deliver Brexit, any better than Theresa May.
The contest raises the questions of what exact differences there are in and how either will seek to achieve Brexit, with the refusal of the European Union to agree to any changes to the agreement with Theresa May, which the House of Commons defeated three times. There are also concerns as to how either of them may be able to lead the Conservatives a General Election, where the main rival will be the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
Although popular in the votes out so far, Boris Johnson is faced with a question of character. The Economist magazine illustrated its cover with an image of Johnson half done up in clown makeup, with the headline: “Which Boris would Britain get?”
The Guardian quoted one of the Conservative Party’s largest donors, John Griffin, saying, “We need to know if he can be trusted.”Johnson served briefly in the May government as foreign secretary, a stint marked by as many gaffes as breakthroughs in diplomacy. In Myanmar, the British ambassador had to stop him in the middle of reciting a colonial-era poem in front of a group of local dignitaries.
One of Johnson’s most careless blunders concerned Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a dual British-Iranian national who has been languishing in an Iranian jail for three years on charges she denies. As Foreign Secretary, Johnson said she was teaching journalism in Iran. Her family, which claims that Zaghari-Ratcliffe was on holiday, said Johnson’s comments undercut her release.
Jeremy Hunt has no such problems so far, but his popularity is questionable as well as his own policies to exit from the EU. The problem facing both Conservative candidates and the people of the UK is what strategies they will have for a good and speedy exit from the EU, by October 31, this year. They both face the issue of the Irish Border, and are talking about a “No Deal” Brexit, which has already been outvoted by the House of Commons. The selection of a new Prime Minister does not assure a clean and easy exit from the EU, the problems facing both the UK and EU.